The Liberal Party is projected to win 196 seats in the House of Commons, comfortably surpassing the 172 needed for an absolute majority in a 343-member parliament
With one week to go before Canada’s federal elections, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party remains the frontrunner in the polls, holding up to a seven-point lead over its main rival, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party, according to the latest study by Nanos Research.
The poll, which surveyed 1,289 Canadian citizens and has a margin of error of 2.7%, shows the Liberals with 43.7% of voting intention as of Monday. The Conservatives stand at 36.3%, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 10.7%, the Bloc Québécois (BQ) with 5.6%, and the Green Party with just 1%.
According to projections from the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), which aggregates data from multiple national surveys, the Liberal Party would win 196 seats in the House of Commons, easily surpassing the 172-seat threshold for an outright majority in the 343-seat parliament. The Conservatives are projected to secure 121 seats, the BQ 20, the NDP 5, and the Greens 1.
Strong support for Carney is attributed in part to economic and annexation threats made by U.S. President Donald Trump, which have prompted Canadian voters to rally around the current prime minister. Support for the Liberals has solidified particularly in provinces such as Quebec, where former BQ voters have shifted toward Carney in response to mounting tensions with Washington.
Voter turnout in advance voting has also set a record. Elections Canada, the federal electoral authority, reported that nearly two million people had voted within the first 24 hours of advance voting, which began last Friday and runs through Monday. In the 2021 elections, a total of 5.8 million voters used the advance polls over four days.
Carney’s leadership marks a historic comeback when compared to polling figures from January, when then–Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation. At that time, the Conservatives were leading the Liberals by 25 percentage points.
The arrival of Carney, an economist with no prior political career, combined with Trudeau’s growing unpopularity and an international context shaped by Trump’s threats, has reshaped the electoral landscape. Added to this is Poilievre’s campaign strategy, which has continued to focus on attacking Trudeau—even though the former prime minister is no longer a candidate.
According to writer and political analyst Stephen Henighan, quoted Monday by The Globe and Mail, Carney has achieved what Trudeau could not: “to project confidence in the existence of Canada,” allowing the new Liberal leader to present himself as a firm defender of the country in the face of external pressures.
The general election is scheduled for April 28. If the polling forecasts are confirmed, Carney would secure an unprecedented parliamentary majority after just four months at the helm of the Liberal Party.
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