Despite relaxing limits to three children and offering cash incentives, Beijing is failing to reverse a demographic crisis driven by high costs and a profound shift in social values.
BEIJING — Ten years after the historic abolition of its draconian “one-child” policy, China is facing the one outcome it sought to prevent: a population in sustained decline.
The world’s second-largest economy is now grappling with one of the lowest birth rates globally. The relaxation of the policy in 2015 to allow two children, and again in 2021 to allow three, has failed to spur a baby boom. Instead, the nation’s population has contracted for three consecutive years, a demographic reversal that experts say is now likely irreversible.
The Chinese government, which once enforced the 1979 policy with brutal efficiency, is now in a full-scale offensive to encourage births. President Xi Jinping has personally declared population development a “vital matter.” Authorities are promoting a “birth-friendly society” through a cascade of incentives, from national childcare subsidies to extended marriage leave in some provinces. Cities like Hangzhou are offering direct cash payments of up to $6,900 for a third child.
But these measures are colliding with a deep-seated change in mentality. For younger generations, parenthood has lost its central place as a life goal, replaced by a focus on personal well-being and professional advancement.
The deterrents are both cultural and financial. According to the Yuwa Population Research institute, the average cost of raising a child in China until university graduation is approximately $94,500—a figure 6.3 times the country’s per capita income, making it one of the most expensive places in the world to raise a family.
Young people, particularly women, also cite the unequal burden of domestic labor and childcare as a primary reason for delaying or forgoing having children, fearing it will derail their careers.
“It’s not that I dislike children,” explained Lin, a 38-year-old childless woman, to EFE. “I just don’t want to take on the responsibility of educating the next generation… young people give more importance to their self-esteem and personal growth.”
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