New Delhi’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty signals a turning point. Infrastructure projects, regional rivalry, and an uncertain future hang in the balance.
As tensions flare once again between India and Pakistan, the Indian government is considering plans to significantly increase water withdrawals from rivers vital to Pakistan’s agriculture. The move is viewed as retaliation for a deadly April attack on tourists in Kashmir, which New Delhi has blamed on Islamabad.
India suspended its participation in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty shortly after the incident, in which 26 civilians were killed. Though Pakistan has denied any involvement in the attack, the treaty has not been reinstated. This comes despite both countries agreeing to a ceasefire last week following their most serious confrontation in decades.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reportedly directed officials to accelerate irrigation and hydroelectric projects along the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers—waterways largely allocated to Pakistan under the original treaty. One key proposal under review would double the length of the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River from its current 60 kilometers to 120 kilometers, allowing India to divert up to 150 cubic meters of water per second, up from the current 40.
Reuters reports that discussions over the Ranbir Canal expansion began last month and have continued despite the ceasefire. Indian officials from the water and foreign affairs ministries, as well as the Prime Minister’s Office and the state-run hydroelectric company NHPC, declined to comment.
In a recent speech, Mr. Modi remarked that “blood and water cannot flow together,” though he did not explicitly reference the treaty. Minister of Water Resources C.R. Paatil later stated that his ministry would follow the prime minister’s directives and ensure that “not a single drop of water flows out.”
Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told lawmakers that Islamabad had formally written to India, arguing that the suspension of the treaty was unlawful and reaffirming its commitment to the agreement.
Pakistan depends on the Indus River system for 80 percent of its farmland and nearly all of its hydroelectric power projects. It has characterized any Indian effort to halt or divert water flow as an “act of war.”
David Michel, a water security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, noted that significant water diversion projects would take years to implement. However, Pakistan has already experienced a 90 percent drop in water flow at a key point after India began maintenance on several existing projects.
Originating near Lake Mansarovar in Tibet, the Indus River system traverses some of the world’s most geopolitically sensitive territory, flowing through northern India and into eastern and southern Pakistan before reaching the Arabian Sea. The treaty, brokered by the World Bank, has survived multiple wars and prolonged hostilities between the two nuclear-armed nations.
India has long objected to Pakistani criticism of its development projects along the system. Since 2023, New Delhi has pushed to renegotiate the treaty to address growing energy demands and population pressures. Beyond the Ranbir Canal expansion, India is reportedly assessing new projects that could reduce water flow to Pakistan from rivers assigned to it under the treaty.
A government-prepared document suggests that water from the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers could potentially be diverted to northern Indian states. This internal report, seen by officials after the April 22 attack, was part of wider discussions within the Ministry of Energy.
India has also compiled a list of hydroelectric projects in Jammu and Kashmir it hopes to expand to 12,000 megawatts, up from the current 3,360 megawatts. The list, created by the energy ministry, predates the attack but is now under active review.
These prospective projects include dams with significant storage capacity—a first for India within the Indus system. At least five storage projects are under evaluation, four of them on Chenab and Jhelum tributaries.
Kashmir remains a flashpoint, claimed in full by both India and Pakistan but governed in parts by each. The region has been scarred by a long-running insurgency against Indian rule, which New Delhi accuses Islamabad of supporting. Pakistan denies the allegations.
Pakistan has indicated that it is preparing legal action at multiple international forums, including the World Bank, which facilitated the treaty, and possibly the Permanent Court of Arbitration or the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
“Water must not be used as a weapon,” said Pakistani Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb. “We will not entertain any outcome that does not involve full restoration of the treaty.”
David Michel added that concerns over the treaty’s suspension are not limited to Pakistan. “As regional competition deepens, some Indian observers worry that Delhi’s weaponization of water could set a precedent for Beijing to do the same to India,” he warned.
Keep Independent Journalism Alive
In a world flooded with noise, independent journalism is more vital than ever. We work hard to bring you clear, accurate, and unbiased international news — free from corporate or political influence.If you believe in the power of honest reporting, please consider making a donation. Every contribution, big or small, helps us stay independent and keep the world informed.
Support us via PayPalYour support makes a difference.
